NFL Rookie of the Year Odds are Hot Commodity
Now that the draft is over odds were released for who would win the 2020 Offensive Rookie of the Year award. It’s time to start thinking about these rookies on the football field. Right after the draft wrapped up,We’ll look at the top options and see who may be the best bet going forward.
QB Joe Burrow, CIN
Burrow was the first overall pick in the draft, so it should make sense that he’s the early favorite at +250 to win Rookie of the Year. Burrow is likely the only quarterback in this class who will start right away, and has a bevy of weapons to throw to including A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd. However, even if he is in a good position to succeed right away, Kyler Murray last year and Cam Newton in 2011 are the only first overall picks to win the award in the last nine years.
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC
Edwards-Helaire was the first running back taken in the draft, selected at the end of the first by the Chiefs. He is someone who is benefiting greatly from the high-octane offense he is a part of, as he shot up to second at +800 to win the award. Edwards-Helaire aims to be an integral part of the backfield along with Damien Williams, and may even get the bulk of the red zone opportunities. However, sharing carries with Williams or even someone like Darian Thompson carries some risk.
QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA
Tagovailoa ended up going to the team that many thought he would go to from the start, picked fifth overall by the Dolphins. He is tied with Edwards-Helaire as far as odds go, listed at +800 immediately following the draft. Now if he sees the field sooner rather than later, he definitely has a good chance of making an impact immediately. However, Miami may elect to go with Ryan Fitzpatrick in the early stages due to some durability concerns regarding Tua, which may impact his Rookie of the Year chances.
RB D’Andre Swift, DET
Most draft experts believed Swift was the top running back in this class, which is why the Lions were thrilled to grab him early in the second round. With only Kerryon Johnson as a legitimate threat in the backfield, Swift is in a good position to become the lead back for Detroit, as his odds are currently at +900. However, 24 of the 34 running backs who have won rookie of the year were first round selections.
RB Jonathan Taylor, IND
Taylor is another running back who was a second round pick, selected by the Colts. He is listed at +950 and figures to play a prominent part in Indy’s backfield along with Marlon Mack. Taylor will have an excellent offense line to run behind, which gives him potential to break out. However, it’ll be hard to see him overtaking Mack at least this year as the lead running back.
WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN
Jeudy is the first wide receiver mentioned, and may be the best one in this class according to draft experts. The 15th overall selection is +1300 to win Rookie of the Year with the Broncos. With Jeudy ready to start right away and Drew Lock taking steps forward at QB, Jeudy has the potential to put up big numbers. However, just nine of 53 winners on the offensive side of the award were wide receivers, putting Jeudy at a natural disadvantage.
Other NFL Rookie of the Year Contenders
The above-players are the favorites, but don’t sleep on any of these guys. They include DAL WR CeeDee Lamb (+1500), BAL RB J.K. Dobbins (+1600), LV WR Henry Ruggs III (+1800), and LAR RB Cam Akers (+2000).
The Verdict for Rookie of the Year
If we look at trends for this award, running backs seem to be in better shape. A running back has won this award two of the last three seasons, four of the last seven seasons, and 34 times overall. That makes Edwards-Helaire, Swift, and Taylor the most intriguing options to start.
Furthermore, even though the bulk of the running backs to win have come from the first round, they have still had more success in the later rounds than the other positions, including their recent winners of Alvin Kamara in 2017 (3rd round) and Eddie Lacy in 2013 (2nd round).
So to me, given all these factors and what situations these players will be in early on, I’m picking Swift at +900 to win the award. He’s a first round talent who will be the running back in the best position to earn carries and rack up numbers right away.
